Over 10,000 match results in the seasons 2016-17 and 2017-18 were analysed and a curve of best fit calculated. This curve was used to create a table for all rating differences and the related likelihood of the result.
This table is used to calculate;
The predicted percentages for each result
The change to ratings for a given result.
The graph and tables below shows how the 7,800 results in Season 2018-19 compared to this curve.