OddsPredictor is a personal web site for amusement only.
The idea arose from an interest in sports gambling combined with playing competitive chess where players are rated according to past results.
With bookmakers' odds offered on football matches influenced by non statistical factors such as the level of betting by fans which in turn is influenced by popularity of teams and fanatical optimism, it would be expected that opportunities would arise to take advantage of these factors.
Alternatively a pure statistical view such as calculated by Odds Predictor may miss changes to teams such as key player injuries, new signings, a new manager or the resting of players due to an upcoming important European or Cup match. Work is taking place on how to evaluate these influences and adjust the predictions accordingly or probably more realistically how to choose not to make predictions on these matches in an objective manner.
The big question of course is whether the Odds Predictor model is working or not?
The 2016-17 season saw OddsPredictor produce a profit of £1,435 a 2.9% return on total monies staked.
Statistical analysis has been inconclusive with the Best Fit calculation between predicted and bookmakers' odds favouring the bookmakers while analysis of just the games predicted has shown a marked preference towards OddsPredictor. More data is needed before answering this question conclusively but impressions from last season are good.